Thursday, November 8, 2012

How to float the GOP boat

We've been discussing the political science behind the election results in both Env. Sust and Ec & Quant. It fits the official course description for both courses, and is a wonderful teachable moment in quantitative analysis.

In each case, we've restated Hume's guillotine, and then applied it to the results, but also to the make-believe punditry that for months, despite the best evidence, called it a "close race."

All the hubris and chagrin we're now reading about was wonderfully predictable, even by our small class of Ec & Quant students, weeks before the election.

If the pundits can be so easily beaten in their predictions, by a group of college juniors and seniors to boot, something is wrong with the pundits.

And now, the reckoning...

Someone, it seems, has to be forced out of the GOP lifeboat for the boat to float, and so younger, more female, and more Hispanic voters can be cajoled to jump in.

Who's getting kicked out of the boat?

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