GL4003 Global Change
Second Midterm Exam
Professor Womersley
Due Thursday after Spring Break in class or by email
Instructions
This is a take-home exam. Answer all questions, showing work where
necessary to demonstrate skills or learning, diagrams if asked or if it helps.
If you don’t know or can’t work out an answer, put down what you do know. You
may research answers. You may discuss
them with the instructor. You may not confer with other students. Submit
electronically, multiple files allowed including statistical files in JMP,
Excel, or Smith’s.
Exam is 20% of grade for class, 10% given for each problem below
- Test the hypotheses that change in average annual temperature is a function of the phase of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, the level of deposition of volcanic aerosols in the atmosphere, the amount of solar energy hitting the top of the atmosphere, and the combined effect of anthropogenic influences, following the method pioneered by Judith Lean and David Rind (2008). Report the results, with all statistical parameters explained. Provide a discussion of the meaning of the results.
- Using the model or estimator produced by the above method (i.e., using the full equation), and Microsoft Excel, compare the predicted time series to the actual (HadCRU 3) using a graph. How accurate is your model? To what use might it be put?
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